Barclays’ key macroeconomic projections

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From September 2013

Is the rebound in corporate profits plausible? 5 of 6

Residents of the United States, please read this important information before proceeding

Please read this important information before proceeding.

Figure 1: Real GDP and Consumer Prices (% y-o-y)

Source: Barclays Research, Global Economics Weekly, 23 August 2013. Note: Arrows appear next to numbers if current forecasts differ from that of the previous week by 0.2pp or more for annual GDP and by 0.2pp or more for Inflation. Weights used for real GDP are based on IMF PPP-based GDP (5yr centred moving averages). Weights used for consumer prices are based on IMF nominal GDP (5yr centred moving averages).

Figure 2: Central Bank Policy Rates (%)

Source: Barclays Research, Global Economics Weekly, 23 August 2013. Note: Rates as of COB 22 August 2013.


On the evidence of similar crises in the recent past (outlined in the table below), it is reasonable to believe that current events in Egypt and Syria may have a limited effect on markets:


Figure 3: Selected geopolitical events and their impact on global equity markets since 2009

Source: MSCI, Barclays